Puerto Rico's electric bills are about to go up, and the reasons go deeper than a war in the Middle East.

When the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed last month, oil prices surged past $100 a barrel. For an archipelago that runs on imported fossil fuels for more than 90% of its electricity, that's not a distant headline. It shows up on your bill. A rate adjustment is coming at the end of March, and higher costs kick in for April.

— This month’s lead story comes from Ysabelle Kempe, associate editor of Canary Media.

We're also tracking a $1.2 billion emergency generation contract that's raising serious questions, the federal funding cancellations that wiped out community solar programs years in the making, and what a Jones Act waiver actually does for a place that is dependent on imported fuel. Spoiler: not as much as you'd hope.

And this issue marks the debut of Energy Workforce Watch — Connect Puerto Rico's new monthly analysis of hiring signals across Puerto Rico's energy and infrastructure sectors.

This month's issue also draws on reporting from News is My Business, the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), 9 Millones, and TIME.

Global oil prices are hovering around $100 a barrel after the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed. Puerto Rico, which runs on imported fossil fuels for more than 90% of its electricity, is directly exposed (Canary Media).

About 60% of Puerto Rico's generating capacity comes from oil-fired plants, most built in the 1960s and '70s. Puerto Rico's electricity regulator adjusts fuel-cost rates every three months. The next adjustment is set for the end of March — meaning higher bills start in April.

For an archipelago where median household income is around $26,000 a year and electricity is already among the most expensive in the U.S., that's a real hit. After Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the fuel-cost portion of electric rates jumped nearly 50%.

Governor González-Colón has backed plans to expand gas generation and weakened the 2019 law committing Puerto Rico to ditching fossil fuels by 2050.

Ysabelle Kempe is associate editor at Canary Media.

The Trump administration issued a 60-day Jones Act waiver to ease fuel shipments during the Middle East conflict. But analysts say it is unlikely to offset the energy price increases hitting Puerto Rico (News is My Business).

The waiver temporarily allows foreign-flagged vessels to carry fuel and goods between U.S. ports, loosening a law that normally restricts that trade to U.S.-built, U.S.-flagged, and U.S.-owned ships. Puerto Rico has been at the center of Jones Act debates for years, given its dependence on imported fuel and limited shipping options during emergencies. Similar waivers were issued after Hurricane María in 2017 and Hurricane Fiona in 2022.

Even with more shipping flexibility, Puerto Rico still faces pressure from global fuel markets. The waiver doesn't change the price of oil itself. Policy groups across the ideological spectrum, including Cato, the Heritage Foundation, and the Center for American Progress, agree the waiver offers modest benefits at best and reflects deeper structural problems with U.S. maritime law. Analysts point to expanded solar, battery storage, and grid upgrades as the long term path to reducing Puerto Rico's exposure to fuel market swings.

News is My Business is Puerto Rico's first English-language digital business newspaper, founded in 2010.

This spring, Connect Puerto Rico is convening small, off-the-record listening sessions focused on how information about Puerto Rico's energy development moves — and how gaps in that flow shape real outcomes.

We're looking to connect with people who:

If this sounds like you, please fill out the short interest form here: Connect Puerto Rico — Energy Listening Interest Form. Or share it with someone who should be part of the conversation.

We're reviewing interest forms through early April and scheduling April–May sessions now.

Puerto Rico's Financial Oversight and Management Board is questioning how a little-known Florida company landed a 10-year, $1.2 billion contract for emergency power generation despite its own procurement office flagging serious concerns about the company's financial capacity (IEEFA).

Power Expectations reported just $17 million in annual revenues — roughly 100 times the company's reported annual revenues. The FOMB found the company failed to demonstrate relevant experience, didn't provide binding supplier agreements, and scored lowest among all bidders. The FOMB explicitly compared the situation to the post-María Whitefish scandal, when a Montana firm with two employees landed a $300 million grid reconstruction contract before it was canceled in controversy.

The contract is for fossil-fueled generation — LNG or diesel — even though LUMA Energy's own resource adequacy study found that deploying utility-scale battery storage already in development would improve grid reliability nearly 20 times more effectively than adding new gas capacity.

If the Power Expectations contract, a new 530-MW Energiza gas plant, and an ongoing procurement for 3,000 MW of additional capacity all move forward, Puerto Rico risks locking itself into excess fossil fuel infrastructure; it will have to retire those plants ahead of schedule to meet its 100% renewable target by 2050.

Cathy Kunkel is an energy consultant at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA).